In H1 2025, Russian coal exports to China declined to 43.6 mio t (-1.8 mio t or -4% vs. H1 2024), according to China’s General Administration of Customs (GACC).
The decrease in Russian coal supplies resulted from serious logistical issues, high railway tariffs, international sanctions and ruble appreciation. Given depressed global prices, these factors are forcing most producers to export coal at zero or negative margins, that will likely lead to further production and supplies cuts in the near term.
China’s total coal imports in H1 2025 reached 221.7 mio t (-27.5 mio t or -11% y-o-y). Furthermore, in June 2025, imports reached their lowest level in more than two years, dropping to 33.04 mio t (-26% vs. June 2024 and -8% vs. May 2025).
Russia remains China’s second-largest coal supplier after Indonesia, followed by Australia and Mongolia. In H1 2025, Indonesia, China’s top coal provider, reduced exports to 91.0 mio t (-12.3 mio t or -12% y-o-y). Australia and Mongolia also decreased supplies to 36.7 mio t (-0.4 mio t or -1%) and 37.2 mio t (-1.6 mio t or -4%) respectively.
Market share shifts among major suppliers (H1 2025 vs. H1 2024):
· Indonesia: 41.1% (-2.7 p. p.);
· Russia: 19.7% (+1.5 p.p.);
· Mongolia: 16.8% (-0.5 p.p.);
· Australia: 16.6% (-0.2 p.p.).
China’s domestic coal production rose 6% in January-May 2025, reducing import volumes. Nevertheless, in July 2025, Chinese authorities began inspections at coal mines across eight provinces aimed at curbing overproduction and limiting output growth. These measures are seen as potentially tightening coal supply and pushing up domestic prices, which could subsequently affect global prices.
Despite strong demand, Russian coal exports to China continue to decline due to systemic issues and crisis in the coal industry, potentially leading to Russia’s shrinking market share and growing competitive pressure from other suppliers.
Source: CCA Analysis
