According to preliminary data, Russian coal exports to Turkey in 2024 dropped to 24.4 mio t (-4.0 mio t or -14.1% vs. 2023).
Meanwhile, in 2024 Turkey’s total coal imports, including thermal coal, coking coal and anthracite, totaled 39.7 mio t (+0.7 mio t or +1.8% vs. 2023).
Russia’s share in Turkey’s coal imports in 2024 decreased by 11.3% to 61.5% (72.8% in 2023).
Because of the systemic issues with transportation through the RZD’s network, high shipping costs, as well as international sanctions and depressed global prices, the decline in total Russian coal exports intensified in 2024, bringing supplies down to 195.0 mio t (-17.1 mio t or -8.1% y-o-y).
Most producers have to export coal with zero or negative profitability. Russian suppliers are forced to cut exports in all directions. Deliveries through ports in the South, as well as in the Northwest, are loss-making, while access to railroad capacity remains limited amid rising rail tariffs.
Such situation involves the risk of losing the key remaining markets for Russian coal suppliers, including Turkey, where Russian coal has successfully replaced the main supplier, Colombia, since 2022.
Given the disruption of shipments and Russian exporters’ inability to fulfill their foreign trade obligations on coal delivery in a timely manner, the opposite trend was observed in 2024: at the expense of reduced supplies of Russian material, Colombian coal exports to Turkey jumped almost two-fold to 8.1 mio t (+3.2 mio t or +65.3% vs. 2023).
Source: CCA Analysis
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