Global coal prices showed mixed dynamics over the past week, with European indices continuing to recover, Chinese coal prices softening, Indonesian coal facing weak demand, and Australian thermal coal moving lower.
Mixed dynamics persisted in the coal market over the past week: indices in Europe edged higher; coal in China became cheaper; in Australia, thermal material prices fell, while metallurgical coal quotations showed divergent movements.
In the European coal market, the recovery continued with quotations climbing to 124 USD/t. Coal found support from above-normal temperatures in Europe, which reduced nuclear generation as warming river waters limited cooling capacity for reactors, while electricity prices climbed to multi-month highs due to air conditioning loads. Further temperature increases are forecast for next week.
German electricity prices rose to an average of 158 EUR/MWh, compared with 147.31 EUR/MWh last week. Renewables accounted for 56% of the mix versus 65% a week earlier, while the share of fossil fuels rose from 34% to 44%. Margins for both coal and gas-fired power plants remained positive and increased over the past week.
Gas quotations on the TTF hub, amid the heatwave and exchanges of strikes between the US and Iran, rose over the week to 523.79 USD/1,000 m3 (+46.70 USD/1,000 m3 w-o-w). EU underground gas storage rose to 49% (+2 ppts w-o-w), 10 ppts below last year’s level of 59%. Coal stocks at ARA terminals edged up to 3.93 mio t (+0.04 mio t w-o-w), as low water levels on sections of the Rhine River constrained inland logistics and reduced barge capacity by more than half.
South African High-CV 6,000 rose following the European market to 107-108 USD/t. Mid-CV material hit a 4-month low, falling below 88 USD/t, as demand from Indian DRI (sponge iron) producers — historically among the most important buyers of South African mid-CV coal — weakened due to high costs, rupee depreciation, and improved availability of domestic coal in India.
In China, spot prices for 5,500 NAR coal at the port of Qinhuangdao fell to 124 USD/t, driven by rising inventories at power plants and ports, slower trading activity, and falling import prices. Power plants are well-supplied with coal through long-term contracts and imports, while consumption remains relatively low due to cool weather and high hydropower output. This suggests the potential for significant price gains may be far lower than previously expected, barring an extremely hot spell.
According to the five-year energy sector development plan for 2026–2030 published this week, China aims to build a low-carbon energy system that is reliable and efficient. Coal and oil demand is expected to peak within the next five years, after which they will gradually transition to backup energy sources.
Coal stocks at 9 major ports increased to 28.83 mio t (+0.37 mio t w-o-w), while inventories at 6 major coastal thermal power plants stood at 14.71 mio t (+0.39 mio t w-o-w).
Indonesian 5,900 GAR fell to 107 USD/t, while the price of 4,200 GAR dropped below 65 USD/t, reflecting high inventories in China and persistent rainy weather that did not support active import shipments during the peak summer season.
Indonesian-origin coal is being offered at a premium and is meeting resistance from Chinese and Indian buyers due to ample inventories (physical market deals remain limited), so further downside correction is possible to attract buyers. Some Chinese utilities are even delaying spot purchases for July-August in anticipation of lower prices. Demand from Vietnam also proved limited.
Indonesia raised its thermal coal reference prices (HBA index) across all grades for the first half of July for the sixth consecutive time, despite weakening demand.
Australian High-CV 6,000 fell to 129 USD/t amid easing geopolitical tensions, prompting buyers to adopt a wait-and-see stance. Most inquiries from China came in at discounts or at market prices.
Australia’s HCC metallurgical coal index rose to 244 USD/t, supported by renewed buyer interest, though sentiment remained weak and, according to some reports, the domestic coking coal market may have peaked.
Indian buyers continued to show no interest in the spot market, awaiting policy announcements regarding anti-dumping duties on imported coke, as provisional anti-dumping duties expired on June 30.
Source: CCA
