According to preliminary data, Russian coal exports to China in 2024 dropped to 94.0 mio t (-8.0 mio t or -7.8% vs. 2023).
Meanwhile, in 2024, Chinese total coal imports climbed to 545.0 mio t (+70.0 mio t or +14.7% y-o-y).
Russia’s share in Chinese coal imports in 2024 declined by 4.3% to 17.2% from 21.5% in 2023.
Russia is the second largest coal exporter to China after Indonesia. It is followed by Australia and Mongolia. In 2024, all of these countries managed to ramp up their supplies to China, especially Australia, with its exports jumping by almost 30 mio t, or +57%.
The drop in Russian coal export supplies is linked to critical logistical issues, as well as international sanctions, depressed world prices and high production costs, forcing most producers to export coal at zero or negative margins.
Russian suppliers have to reduce exports on all routes. Coal shipments via terminals in the South and North-West remain unprofitable, while access to rail capacity is restricted on the back of rising transportation costs.
Thus, given the logistical challenges and high transportation costs, the lost tonnages of Russian coal on the Chinese market are being replaced by shipments from competing countries.
Source: CCA Analysis
