Global coal prices declined over the past week amid weaker demand, cooler weather and rising inventories across several major markets.
A decline in quotations was observed in the coal market over the past week: indices in Europe corrected lower; coal in China became cheaper; in Australia, prices dropped for both thermal and metallurgical material.
In the European coal market, prices plunged below 115 USD/t after rising the previous week. Pressure on quotations came from a temporary drop in temperatures, a sharp fourfold increase in wind generation, a 23% decline in German electricity prices, and higher CO2 emission allowance costs.
US President Trump announced the end of the ceasefire with Iran, pushing oil and gas quotations higher. Heightened geopolitical risks also provided support to paper coal contracts (Q3-2026 and Cal-27).
Gas quotations on the TTF hub, amid renewed exchanges of strikes between the US and Iran, surged 14% over the week to 578.39 USD/1,000 m3 (+54.60 USD/1,000 m3 w-o-w). EU underground gas storage rose to 50.6% (+1.6 ppts w-o-w), 10 ppts below last year’s level of 60.3%. Coal stocks at ARA terminals remained at 3.93 mio t (flat w-o-w), 33% higher than a year ago.
South African High-CV 6,000 fell below 103 USD/t, following the European market. Mid-CV material also continued to decline to 87 USD/t, as sponge iron producers predominantly purchased coal from port stocks in India, which is cheaper than imported material. A rise in sponge iron prices early in the week spurred demand for South African coal, but prices soon fell and activity fizzled out.
Thungela Resources’ thermal coal export sales in the first half of 2026 rose 12% to 9.5 mio t. The company noted that higher export volumes were made possible by improved performance from rail operator Transnet and the use of rail quotas from exporters with insufficient coal.
In China, spot prices for 5,500 NAR coal at the port of Qinhuangdao fell to 119 USD/t amid lower consumption, a cool summer, and rising inventories at Bohai Bay ports to a high of 30 mio t. Frequent typhoons, severe flooding, and heavy rains boosted hydropower generation and further reduced coal consumption in southern regions, likely delaying any price recovery. Extreme weather also disrupted operations at many enterprises and hampered trading activity due to logistical risks, limiting new deals. Some producers were forced to cut prices as their attempts to raise quotations met buyer resistance. Lower procurement prices from state-owned Shenhua and other discounts across the supply chain reinforced the sense of oversupply.
Many market participants believe a recovery in the thermal coal market is unlikely before mid-July, though the decline may slow as some suppliers have begun resisting further price cuts due to high costs and expectations of hot weather in the coming weeks. Safety inspections at coal mines are gradually curbing output, which could offer support to the market.
Coal stocks at 9 major ports increased to 29.04 mio t (+0.21 mio t w-o-w).
Indonesian 5,900 GAR fell to 105 USD/t, while the price of 4,200 GAR dropped to 63 USD/t due to high inventories in China and India, where buyers refrained from seaborne purchases, turning instead to domestic coal. Many coal suppliers focused on domestic consumption rather than export markets, resulting in limited spot availability, though this was insufficient to halt the decline, and a lack of buying interest reflected more bearish sentiment.
Authorities stated that state utility PLN has secured an additional 1.8 mio t of coal for July and signed contracts for a further 3 mio t monthly from August through December. Should these contracts materialize, plans to halt exports would be averted. Increased coal deliveries would help expand capacity and improve reliability of Java’s power grid.
Australian High-CV 6,000 coal remained at last week’s level below 129 USD/t, though volatility increased due to renewed escalation in the Middle East. Supply remained steady, but limited demand from key buyers such as China prevented price gains.
Australia’s HCC metallurgical coal index fell to 239 USD/t. The metallurgical coal market moved lower amid constrained demand. Demand in China shows signs of deterioration, as buyers are becoming increasingly cautious in raw material purchases, expecting coking coal prices to decline due to the seasonal steel consumption slowdown in July-August.
Source: CCA
