Russian coal exports just hit their highest month since 2014. Every 2026 forecast said this shouldn’t be happening.
DBX flow data shows Russian seaborne coal exports reached 19.4 Mt in June, up 22% year on year – against a consensus that has called for flat-to-declining exports all year.
Break it down by port and the record dissolves into two different stories.
Some 44% of June’s year-on-year increase came from just two ports – Taman in the Black Sea and Ust-Luga in the Baltic – the main gateways for Kazakh coal transiting Russia under last year’s EU exemption.
Taman was up 118% year on year, increasingly routed to Turkey, India and now Israel. Ust-Luga’s growth is almost entirely Polish tonnage, with Poland the leading buyer of Kazakh transit coal.
July flips the story. Taman and Ust-Luga volumes fell year on year even as total exports kept climbing, suggesting July’s growth reflects genuine Russian-origin coal.
The standout buyer was Israel, with imports rising from 15 kt to 710 kt year on year as the region’s energy crisis reshapes coal demand.
Same headline, two different stories a month apart. That is why flows matter more than country totals.
Source: DBX Commodities
