Russian coal exports to China through railway border crossings fell sharply during the first half of 2026 amid weak demand and transport constraints.
In January-June 2026, Russian railway coal exports to China via border crossings dropped to 5.8 mio t (-2.4 mio t or -29.5% vs. Jan-Jun 2025).
The main reasons for the decline in exports to China via border crossings were limited demand from utilities and industrial consumers, along with competition from coal supply on the Chinese domestic market.
Oversupply and abnormal weather conditions (the heavy rains observed since May) disrupted logistics and resulted in lower business activity, which caused a temporary slowdown in coal consumption and put downward pressure on domestic prices. Furthermore, extreme weather conditions led to the suspension of operations at numerous industrial facilities and also hampered trading in the coal market because of logistical issues, which limited new deals.
Market participants link a possible demand recovery to the onset of summer heat and stricter safety inspections at mines. However, weather forecasts for July show that unfavorable conditions (new typhoons and downpours) are likely to persist, creating additional uncertainty for exporters.
On top of muted demand, Russian suppliers faced additional constraints from limited railway capacity towards Chinese border points. The situation underscores a deeper, systemic issue: a long-standing shortage of rail transport capacity on the Baikal-Amur Mainline (BAM) and Trans-Siberian Railway has led to exports being heavily dependent on the infrastructure of a monopoly, which still lags significantly behind market requirements.
Source: CCA
