Last week the gas shortage caused by the ongoing maintenance at the Norwegian gas field and the reduction in Gazprom’s supplies from Russia to the EU strengthened thermal coal indices over 140 USD/t. TTF gas quotes soared to new record highs of 41.3 EUR/MWh (+0.70 EUR/MWh to 28.07.2021). Wind output in Europe decreased to 383 GWh (-607 GWh to July 28, 2021), providing additional support to coal quotes. ARA coal stocks stood at the level of 4.5 mio t (-0.2 mio t to July 28, 2021).
South African coal indices renewed 13-year highs over 130 USD/t. The rise in prices was driven by issues on the railway line, connecting coal-mining provinces of South Africa and the port of Richards Bay. According to experts, the indices may continue to grow in the short term due to additional supply restrictions, caused by the plans of the railway operator Transnet to resume maintenance in August 2021.
The prices for 5500 kcal/kg NAR coal of domestic production in the port of Qinhuangdao exceeded 163 USD/t. Owing to the rise in COVID-19 diseases in China, the authorities in Shaanxi Province announced the temporary closure of a number of mines. Also, the government of China introduced a requirement, according to which coal vessels, coming from Indonesia must stay at sea for at least 14 days before arriving at Chinese ports.
The decline in prices for Australian thermal coal below 160 USD/t resulted from the downturn in trading activity of Asian buyers, who took a wait-and-see attitude due to the high price of Australian coal, which was at the level of all-time since 2008.
The cut in supplies amid the worsening epidemiological situation in Indonesia supported Indonesian 5900 GAR over 120 USD/t.
On August 04, the Indonesian government adopted a resolution on sanctions for local coal companies, which cannot fulfill their obligations to supply material to the domestic market in 2021. This measure was taken owing to critically low coal reserves at Indonesian power plants. Those suppliers will be subject to coal export bans and/or heavy fines.
A shortage of Australian coking coal, caused by strong demand and scheduled maintenance at some mines in Australia, positively affected the indices of coking coal from Australia over 215 USD/t.
Source: CAA Analytics
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